At a glance: Vietnam’s total trade hit a record $659.58B (+28.1% YoY) in 7M 2026. The $20.52B trade deficit was heavily driven by a surge in production input imports (94.1% of total imports) to fuel manufacturing expansion for H2 order cycles. The FDI sector dominated with 80.1% of exports, while the U.S. ($104.7B) and China ($138.6B) remained the top export and import partners respectively.
The Headline Numbers & Production Dynamics
Vietnam’s total import-export turnover reached $659.58 billion in the first seven months of 2026 — a 28.1% increase year-on-year. Total exports hit $319.53 billion (+21.7%), while imports reached $340.05 billion (+34.8%), causing the trade balance to shift to a $20.52 billion deficit.
Industrial production Index (IIP) surged by 11.4% YoY during the same period—the highest 7-month increase in recent years—proving that the trade deficit is strongly backed by an expanding domestic manufacturing sector. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises continue to anchor export growth, contributing $255.89 billion (80.1% of total exports).
- July performance: $53.08B (+4.5% vs June)
- FDI sector: $255.89B (+26.4% YoY, 80.1% share)
- Domestic sector: $63.64B (+5.8% YoY)
- Processing industry: $287.91B (90.1% share)
- Agriculture & Forestry: $22.79B (7.1% share)
- Seafood products: $6.86B (2.2% share)
- July performance: $56.67B (+6.1% vs June)
- Production inputs: $319.95B (94.1% share)
- Machinery & equipment: 56.9% of total imports
- Raw materials & fuel: 37.2% of total imports
- Consumer goods: $20.10B (only 5.9% share)
- 40 commodity categories exceed $1B imports
Key Commodity Performance & FTA Utilization
There are 31 export commodity groups exceeding $1 billion (accounting for 93% of total exports). Notably, 7 major commodity groups surpassed $10 billion, contributing nearly 70% of total export turnover.
To support this expansion, Vietnamese businesses issued over 1.2 million Certificate of Origin (C/O) forms under Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), covering nearly $100 billion in preferential trade (~28% of total exports). Preference utilization rates reached 30% to 50% across key FTAs.
Understanding the Trade Deficit Dynamics
The $20.52 billion trade deficit contrasts with last year’s $10B+ surplus. However, analyzing the structure of imports reveals a reassuring narrative: 94.1% of total imports ($319.95B) were capital goods, machinery, and raw materials required for industrial manufacturing.
Consumer goods represented only 5.9% of total import value ($20.1 billion). This distribution reflects an economy actively front-loading production capacity. Capital goods imported today are expected to translate directly into accelerated export volumes throughout Q3 and Q4 of 2026.
Logistics Capacity Impact
High import volumes maintain strong demand for inbound freight handling and port clearance in the near term. Logistics planners should prepare for a corresponding shift toward outbound container demand as manufacturing plants deliver on order commitments in late Q3.
Key Trade Partners
The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, receiving $104.7 billion in goods over the 7-month period. Meanwhile, China retained its position as the largest import partner, supplying $138.6 billion worth of machinery and industrial inputs.
Looking Ahead
The Ministry of Industry and Trade projects total annual import-export turnover could **surpass $1,000 billion in 2026** if FTA benefits continue to be leveraged effectively.
The key variables to watch in the months ahead include:
• Section 301 Tariff Response: Assessing the pace of U.S. order adjustments in response to the 12.5% forced labor tariff taking effect in late July across textiles, footwear, electronics, and wood products.
• China Import Trajectory: Tracking input import volumes as the manufacturing ramp-up continues into peak Q3/Q4 shipping cycles.
• Freight & Supply Chain Costs: Monitoring Middle East disruptions and freight cost feed-through into overall export competitiveness.